5.2% yield + failing auctions + Caymans-based basis-trade funds holding $1.8T (3× 2020) = system at breaking point. Latest 2-yr auction was "historically catastrophic" — yield jumped 50 bp in a month with collapsing bid-to-cover.
$1 trillion/year in corporate buybacks is the ONLY real net buyer of US stocks. The zero-cost 2020 debt funding this is maturing now at 3-4%. Without buybacks the market doesn't go up. Mag-7 rally = passive money flow + buybacks, not earnings.
Private credit (Blackstone, Apollo, Blue Owl, Blackrock) gated redemptions before war news. SPV-funded datacenters with 3-yr GPU lifespan on 5-yr leases = built-in default risk. PIK interest at 15% default rate ≈ 2008 subprime peak.
The BoJ rate hike is engineered. Japan will be forced to dump trillions in USTs to defend the yen. Fed will print to buy at floor. Japan ends up bag-holding losses while US wallet-prints to grab their high-cost Treasuries. 1997 Asian Crisis playbook with Japan as the victim this time.
Per Dalio: AI mega-caps (MSFT/GOOG/AMZN/META) get token issuance rights. Every stablecoin issued → backed by US Treasury purchase. AI tokens replace USD as global currency. Same scheme as 1720 South Sea Company "debt转股", different actors.
Treasury raiding Fannie/Freddie reserves to suppress mortgage rates. Credit card APR cap by decree. Fed independence eroding. "高息扩表" (high-rate QE) becoming formal policy — short rates high to attract money, Fed prints to absorb long-debt, inflation erases the rest.
Gold, silver, oil, copper, lithium, farmland, water rights. Inflation 3-5%/yr maintained as policy to erase $40T debt → cash savings get torched. He's been long gold/silver since 2024 (claims 2-3× gains, took partial profits on COMEX margin shocks).
30-yr USTs already crashed 40-50% from 2020 highs and no real bid. JPY in structural unwind. Bank-loaded long bonds are why banks need emergency Fed printing right now.
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ (1) GET OTHERS TO BAG-HOLD │
│ 2008-2018: China (now selling since trade war) │
│ 2018-2025: Japan + UK ("自身难保" — busted) │
│ 2025+: AI mega-caps via stablecoin issuance │
├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ (2) BLOW TECH BUBBLE → POP → MONEY FLEES TO BONDS │
│ Hi short rates kill yield-stocks → money to UST │
│ UST falls → money flees to tech (last safe place) │
│ Tech crashes → panic capital → buys USTs at floor │
│ Status: Stress-tested 2025 — FAILED (money │
│ went to gold instead) │
├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ (3) FED PRINTS, USD DEVALUES (his prediction) │
│ Only path left. Will keep inflation at 3-5% as │
│ policy. 1946-1970 precedent: $US debt 120% → 40% │
│ of GDP via slow inflation. │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Step 1. SUPPRESS target's currency (multi-year FX engineering)
Step 2. LURE target to top-tick US Treasuries
(low US rates + high UST price)
Step 3. RATE HIKE in US → UST price crashes → target sits on losses
Step 4. WAR / OIL SHOCK forces target to drain reserves
Step 5. TARGET dumps US Treasuries at floor → Fed prints to buy
(FIMA repo activated)
Step 6. INFLATION erases what's left + USD抄底 of target's assets
• Forget being right every time. Buffett gets it wrong too. • Win 1, lose 5 — as long as the 1 win pays 10× the loss. • Asymmetric payoff > prediction accuracy. • Chart signals reveal big-money footprints. • Auto stop-loss + auto take-profit removes emotion. • Position size and risk control matter more than picks. • Don't抄底 (bottom-fish) — only buy assets ALREADY in bull market.
| Billionaire | What sds claims they're doing | Mentioned in |
|---|---|---|
| Warren Buffett | $300B cash in short-term Treasuries + Japan 5 trading houses (carry trade) + Occidental + Chevron. Sold most US stocks. Waiting for AI/SPV implosion. | #1, #5, #7, #17 |
| Bill Gates | Bought 270K acres of US farmland. Hedge against USD devaluation + food inflation. | #1 |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Buying Hawaii land aggressively. Building underground bunker w/ farm, energy, water. Self-sufficient setup. | #1 |
| Jeff Bezos | Stockpiling land. Following the real-asset thesis. | #1 |
| Michael Burry | Long water rights, farmland, gold. Same "USD debasement" play. | #1 |
| Ray Dalio | Long gold. Says "world enters Stage 6 disorder by 2026." Predicted WW3 (trade/chip/AI/capital). | #1, #4 |
| Jamie Dimon (JPM) | Moved $350B from Fed reserves into long-term Treasuries — betting on rapid 0% rate cut = crisis incoming. | #18 |
| Li Ka-shing | Sold most cash-cow assets (UK utilities, ports). Bought into UK assets at distressed prices. | #4 |
| Goldman Sachs | Shorting same AI/software loans they sell to clients (sds claims). Mirror of 2008 subprime play. | #5, #10 |
| Trump | Made 3000+ stock trades this year (sds's wording). | #1 |